(Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Read about our approach to external linking. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. Do you know this baby? Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. What results did you discover? Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Trump won 18 of the 19. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. Hillary Clinton (578) Dont simply gloss over this. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Team up with others in your region, and help out by To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Click here, for more. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. This county voted with the popular vote each time. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. These are the bellwether counties. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. All other 21 counties voted Republican. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. It is easy to gloss over this. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. 3. Their concerns are real. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). All Rights Reserved. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Go on, look them up! And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. So, where are the bellwether counties? Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Just how big is it? Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Found an error on our site? If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. our Gitlab account where you can David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". That report was issued on Nov. 12. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. It's the wrong question. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. . (i.e. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. 03:30. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? It also backed Gov. But it's still indicative of widespread support. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Still, the state's worth watching. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. 12. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. Not anymore. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says.
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